Explore our research spanning supply chain shifts, the Fourth Industrial Revolution, geopolitical risks and the US election in our latest round-up below:
Global Trade Shake-up
A combination of factors including the global Covid-19 pandemic, US protectionism and new technologies will reshape global trade in the coming years. We published a raft of analysis on this topic over July, including an overarching webinar. We focused on US/China and US/EU relations and considered the extent to which the US’ November election could impact US and global trade policy. Finally we looked at shifting supply chains, highlighting how a greater embrace of ‘regionalisation’ will impact different parts of the supply chain and which countries stand to benefit.
Amidst the economic turmoil being wrought by the global Covid-19 pandemic, investments continue to be made in laying the groundwork for the Fourth Industrial Revolution, or ‘Industry 4.0’. Most strikingly, China’s vast economic stimulus package to be implemented over the coming months includes major investments into new technologies such as 5G, Ultra-High Voltage (UHV) transmission and electric vehicle infrastructure. Outside of China, numerous smart ports, particularly in Asia and Europe, are leading the push towards increased automation and connectivity through the use of technologies such as AI, Blockchain and IoT.
The multi-decade trend of closer economic and political ties between the West and China is under threat. We published a raft of analysis on this topic in July, for instance examining why US-China tensions are on a path towards greater escalation in the coming years. As China charts a more unilateral path, other major emerging markets will face starker choices over their diplomatic relations with the country. For instance, in a world order increasingly bifurcated between China and the West, India will likely lean closer to the Western powers in a bid to counter China’s growing geopolitical influence in the Indo-Pacific region.
Although the November US presidential elections remain some way off, our political risk analysts have been publishing their thoughts on several major themes that are set to play out. For instance, we see a rising possibility of a dispute over the results of the November US general election, due to the likely unprecedented use of mail-in balloting. Disputes over the logistics and results of the election could plunge the US into a political legitimacy crisis unprecedented in the modern era.
Stay updated on the shifting global environment with analysis, forecasts, data and insight on economic, political, operational and industrial risk factors across 22 key sectors and 200 markets.
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THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS COUNTRY RISK & INDUSTRY RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' Credit Ratings. Any comments or data are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research.